OMAHA — National and local polling in the presidential race have tightened after a wild month that ran voters through the first debate, an assassination attempt and a new nominee.

All the upheaval reset the race, leaving it closer to a tossup. This could end up amplifying the importance of Nebraska’s 2nd District because of how the state awards its Electoral College votes. It and Maine award some to the statewide winner and a single vote to the winners in each of its congressional districts.

Hints of the Omaha area’s role as a swing district keep emerging. Two examples: Former President Donald Trump’s campaign opened an Omaha office, and Vice President Kamala Harris’ team took over the campaign staff President Joe Biden had on the ground.

Harris upped the ante and increased the likelihood of bipartisan 2nd District visits by picking a Nebraskan as her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, born in West Point. His roots make it more likely both candidates will come, as Trump did in 2020.

Even third-party candidate Robert Kennedy Jr., whose candidacy is dealing with controversies about a dumped bear carcass, talk of brain worms and recorded phone conversations with Trump, has said he plans to visit the Omaha area in the coming weeks.

Winner-Take All Fight Could Revive

Then there is the drama in Lincoln, buried for a bit by the noise from a special session Gov. Jim Pillen called this summer seeking property tax relief. Trump and his campaign vehemently want to shift the Cornhusker State to winner-take-all.

They want Nebraska, where Republicans hold a 2-to-1 registration advantage over Democrats, in the same camp as 48 other states that award all Electoral College votes to the winner of the statewide popular vote for president. Pillen wants it, too.

Nebraska Republican Party Chairman Eric Underwood confirmed what state senators have told the Examiner privately, that the issue is not dead for 2024, and Pillen and legislative Republicans are waiting for the right moment to bring it forward.

Underwood said so Saturday, during a rally with about 100 Republicans to open Trump’s campaign office in a beige strip mall near 120th and Center Streets. He told attendees, including  volunteers to help Trump, that the GOP would need their help.

“It’s a delicate opportunity,” Underwood said. “When we’re ready to go I’ve connected with the Trump Force team. I’ve connected with Turning Point Action. … When this opportunity presents itself, what we need to do is to be the support network for those individuals because this will be a national change.”

Trump and his campaign have focused pressure this year on holdouts in the Nebraska Legislature. Trump has already gotten involved, calling a state lawmaker last session who told him the bill lacked the votes to advance, a call Trump later denied.

State lawmakers, including the senator who shepherded the idea last session, State Sen. Loren Lippincott of Central City, have said Pillen would call another special session if he can show the governor he has 33 votes to overcome a promised filibuster.

“Right now, we do not,” Lippincott said recently. “But I know we’re all still working.”

Democrats See Effort To Avoid Risk Of Loss

Nebraska Democratic Party chairwoman Jane Kleeb has said Trump and the state’s Republicans only want to change the rules because they know they’re behind in a district her party celebrates on tee shirts and posters as “the blue dot.”

It’s closer to purple and has become a district that swings with the whims of presidential politics that have ebbed back and forth from blue to red. Biden won the 2nd District in 2020. Trump won in 2016. Utah Sen. Mitt Romney won in 2012. Former President Barack Obama won in 2008.

Kleeb said you can almost smell the desperation of Republicans who see Trump hosting “half-empty rallies” and Harris “filling arenas.” She said this election, like most, hinges on turnout, not whether one party changes rules in the middle of the game.

“The Republican Party and Trump himself can make as many threats as they want, but the 17 coalition Democrats, Independents and Republicans are standing strong to keep a fair election system in place,” Kleeb said of the group that backed a filibuster. “No matter the bluster … they simply do not have the votes.”

National political pundits have again increased the spotlight on the 2nd District by constantly repeating the possibility that the Electoral College vote could end up in a 269-269 tie that the GOP-led House would decide or the Omaha-based district could break the tie, resulting in a 270-268 win.

Local political observers used to call that a far-fetched possibility. But some poll watchers are starting to consider the idea of one district — of Douglas, Saunders and part of Sarpy Counties — deciding which person sits in the White House.

Randall Adkins, a political scientist at the University of Nebraska at Omaha, has called the idea unlikely but possible. His former UNO colleague, Paul Landow, has said state lawmakers will face tremendous pressure to cave on winner-take-all.

Landow has said Trump faces a balancing act of trying to change the law to advantage his campaign while still also competing in the 2nd District in case things stay the same. He also doesn’t want to boost Democratic turnout by trying.

Increased Presence By Trump-Harris Campaigns

Both major presidential campaigns have ramped up their presence in the Omaha area in recent months. Biden was first, announcing staff hires. The Republican National Committee and Trump increased their presence in May. All are knocking doors.

The Harris campaign, in a statement Saturday, said Biden and now Harris have been on the ground in NE-02 for months, led by Doug Gray, a state director and two senior advisers, Precious McKesson and Meg Mandy. Ads are also running.

Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff, Harris’ husband, was the first major surrogate of the cycle, visiting in March to meet with physicians and advocates on reproductive health and returning in July to meet with young voters and small business owners.

“Nebraskans’ rights and fundamental freedoms are on the line this November, and the Harris campaign isn’t taking a single vote for granted to build a broad coalition of Democrats, Independents and Republicans to win NE-02 again,” the statement said.

The stakes were clear at the Trump office grand opening on Saturday. Joe Hagerty, the joint RNC and Trump campaign’s Nebraska field director who handles door-knocking and more, asked the crowd to volunteer by telling them the 2nd District “could be the difference in the election.”

“We want President Trump to get elected, and so we don’t want that one electoral vote that we’re responsible for to be the difference in him not winning,” Hagerty said, adding that the RNC and Trump campaign were just starting their investments.

GOP Shows Signs Of Coming Back Together

Underwood and the Nebraska GOP and county GOP leaders who had feuded during the primary election season with U.S. Rep. Don Bacon and his campaign let Bacon’s campaign manager Matthew Zacher speak during the rally.

Zacher welcomed the chance. Republicans win when they work together, he said. And 90% of the Republicans who support Bacon against Democratic State Sen. Tony Vargas of Omaha also support Trump, and the same with Trump voters and Bacon.

Underwood called it “unity on our principles.” He said the party is better off being led by the grassroots than by a few people at the top and said it is healthier and admittedly a little more unpredictable than before, but better ready to harness energy for elections.

The new RNC-Trump office is next door to Bacon’s campaign. The RNC and Nebraska GOP took over the office lease from the Douglas County GOP after county party funds ran low during a leadership transition to the new, more populist and pro-Trump wing.

“The Trump team has been hugely helpful,” Zacher said. “This last cycle of 2022, we did not have a huge presence from the RNC at the national level in this district.”

The Vargas campaign issued a statement criticizing Zacher and Bacon for embracing Trump, whom Bacon has endorsed three times. It called Bacon and Trump a threat to abortion rights, Social Security and Medicare and said they would be better.

“Bacon isn’t even hiding the fact that he’s relying on Trump’s help to hold onto his seat and stay in Washington,” it said. “That’s why he’ll never stand up to his extreme agenda.”

Beyond the presidential race, much of Saturday’s rally focused on races for the State Board of Education, which Underwood’s GOP has emphasized as vital to flip from current control by a political mixed group to one that is more conservative.

The group also heard from U.S. Sen. Deb Fischer, R-Neb., and a letter from U.S. Rep. Mike Flood, R-Neb. Fischer is likely running against Omaha union leader and nonpartisan candidate Dan Osborn, who is turning in signatures this month to run. Flood faces Democratic State Sen. Carol Blood of Bellevue.

This story was published by Nebraska Examiner, an editorially independent newsroom providing a hard-hitting, daily flow of news. Read the original article: https://nebraskaexaminer.com/2024/08/10/nebraskas-2nd-district-steps-bac...