State Sen. John Cavanaugh on Saturday took up one of the flyers accusing him of putting the “Blue Dot” at risk and tore it to shreds. 

He and his supporters were using pieces of the thousands of attack flyers that have hit Omaha-area mailboxes to make collage-style “Vote Cavanaugh” signs — the symbolic rebuttal to ads that have shaken up the Democratic primary in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District. 

A pair of progressive Super PACs have spent more than $1 million pounding home a dire message: If Cavanaugh is elected to Congress and gives up his seat in the Nebraska Legislature, it would give Republicans the votes needed to erase the “Blue Dot” in presidential elections and pass a total abortion ban.

Cavanaugh has decried the anonymity behind the ads run against him and in support of fellow Democrat Denise Powell, countering with his own message: Democrats are poised for a big political year, set to gain seats in the Legislature.

What’s a Democrat to believe? 

While only time will tell, recent interviews with Democrats and Republicans who make it their business to influence the makeup of the Legislature produced a point of agreement: This year’s best shot for Republicans to flip a legislative seat is if Cavanaugh goes to Washington and Gov. Jim Pillen appoints a Republican in his place. That’s how favorably the battleground tilts toward Democrats. 

But whether that environment will be enough to offset the loss of Cavanaugh’s seat is murkier, they say. 

In the 49-member Legislature, the minimum goal for progressives is 17 seats — the number needed to deny Republicans a filibuster-proof supermajority.

Given that progressive Democrats or nonpartisans currently hold 16 seats, losing Cavanaugh’s would require them to flip two GOP seats to reach that target. 

Most Democratic insiders interviewed by the Flatwater Free Press say they’re bullish on the party’s chances for gains. 

Barry Rubin, a longtime Nebraska political consultant who typically works for Democrats, said he sees the Blue Dot question as largely academic. If Cavanaugh does get elected to Congress — claiming the 2nd District seat held for a decade by Republican Don Bacon —  that would mean it’s a good year for Democrats up and down the ballot.

“I just don't see how if a Democrat wins that congressional seat that doesn't translate into at least two to five potentially new Democratic legislators down the ballot,” Rubin said. 

But both Republicans stakeholders and Cavanaugh’s opponents suggest that banking on Democratic pickups could turn into a bad gamble.

Republican operatives noted that Donald Trump won all but one of the legislative districts Democrats hope to flip. If the districts vote the same way they did in 2024 and Cavanaugh wins his congressional race, Republicans would maintain their current 33-seat supermajority — with the final 33rd seat potentially filled by a more reliably conservative Pillen appointee.

Progressive nonpartisan Sen. Megan Hunt has called it “magical thinking” to suggest that Cavanaugh giving up his seat doesn’t put the Blue Dot or abortion rights at risk. 

“My colleagues who have endorsed John keep repeating this fantasy,” she said in a recent social media post. “Nobody can guarantee that.”

Randall Adkins, a University of Nebraska at Omaha political scientist, notes that the environment could yet get worse for Republicans, with the Iran war and the specter of an economic downturn. But Adkins and politicos on both sides agreed that there are no guarantees, especially in closely contested legislative races.

“It literally can come down to 100 people’s hands that you shook,” Adkins said. 

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While the Nebraska Legislature is officially nonpartisan, that’s certainly a misnomer come election time, when both political parties recruit and campaign for candidates, and interest groups pour money in on both sides. 

The stakes have also been raised in recent years. The U.S. Supreme Court’s 2022 decision overturning Roe v. Wade put a statewide abortion ban in play. And Trump in 2024 made a strong-arm attempt to convince Republican state senators to dump Nebraska’s method of apportioning three of the state’s five electoral votes by congressional district in favor of the winner-take-all system that all but Nebraska and Maine use. 

Votes in the Legislature, though, don’t always completely follow party lines. 

For example, Republicans in 2023 had only 32 seats but were still able to pass a bill banning abortion after the first trimester with the support of Democrat Mike McDonnell, who later switched parties. Similarly, even though Republicans in the past Legislature held 33 seats, they weren’t able to pass winner-take-all or further restrict abortion. 

Sen. Merv Riepe, a Republican from Ralston, has voiced opposition to both, and it’s believed there are other less-vocal, moderate Republican holdouts. 

Flatwater spoke to nearly a dozen people from both parties active in legislative campaigns as political consultants, representatives of key stakeholder groups or close observers. Most spoke on condition of anonymity to be able to share their thoughts freely. 

There was agreement on both sides of the aisle that the battlefield favors Democrats. 

The first obligation for Democrats: Hold the seats they have. Even GOP interests said the party appears in a relatively good position to do that. 

Meanwhile, Republicans are playing defense in five Omaha-area districts. Progressives also see outside shots in three open districts in more rural east and southeast Nebraska. 

One Democratic operative noted that former state Sen. Lynne Walz of Fremont — now a Democratic candidate for governor — twice prevailed in a legislative district that Trump carried by 30 points, proving that good Democrat candidates can still win in Trump country. But even that operative noted that, six months out, many of these general election races look like coin tosses. 

Funding is also critical in legislative races, and progressives this year have that in abundance. 

Lincoln-based PAC Democracy Nebraska, backed by anonymous donors affiliated with former Lincoln State Sen. Adam Morfeld, has already injected $275,000 into contested legislative races, helping progressives outraise their opponents in most of the consequential contests. 

The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, the national party organization that raises money to support Democrats in statehouse races, also announced in December it was targeting Nebraska with the goal of squashing a Republican supermajority. 

In races across the country over the past year Democrats have overperformed compared to 2024.

Still, given the notable past Republican edge in most of the districts Democrats are seeking to flip, one GOP operative called predictions of big Democratic gains “foolishly optimistic.”

It’s notable that during Trump’s first term, Democrats gained two seats in the Legislature in the 2018 midterm, with the number of Democrat/nonpartisan seats going from 17 to 19 — a recent high-water mark.  

In addition to the national wave, progressive interests say many Nebraskans are fired up by Republican votes in the Legislature that went against voter-approved ballot measures on medical marijuana, the minimum wage and paid family leave.

But to a person, even optimistic Democratic operatives and stakeholders said it’s impossible to say the party will definitely gain seats this year. And both Democrats and Republicans said it’s impossible to predict the future of key issues in Lincoln, regardless of the election’s outcome. A new Legislature will bring new leadership, lots of new faces and all-new dynamics. 

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As it happens, Cavanaugh’s 9th District in the Legislature is arguably the gravitational center of the Blue Dot — the birthplace of the yard signs that have proliferated across Omaha since 2024. It also is one of the most progressive in the state. Pillen’s own PAC labels it as one of only four in the state it considers a solid Democrat seat. 

But if Cavanaugh is elected to Congress, Pillen would likely be the one appointing the person who would fill the last two years of Cavanaugh’s unexpired term. 

The charge that Cavanaugh is now putting the Blue Dot at risk was first raised last fall by Crystal Rhoades, the Douglas County District Court clerk who is among six Democrats in the race. 

“It was the reason I entered the race,” Rhoades said. She said she felt she was the only candidate experienced enough to compete with Cavanaugh and save the Blue Dot. 

But in the past month, the message has been amplified massively, as two progressive Super PACs went up with television ads, digital ads and mailings in the 2nd District targeting Cavanaugh on the issue. 

Federal Election Commission records show Omaha-based Fight for Nebraska has spent over $600,000 attacking Cavanaugh and another $1.2 million in support of Powell. Its funding has come from three out-of-state PACs, including the Wyoming-based Way Back PAC, which was a major funder of independent candidate Dan Osborn’s 2024 Senate campaign. 

New Democrat Majority, a PAC whose website says it is devoted to backing pragmatic, pro-growth candidates they see as the best match to take on Republicans, has spent $735,000 on Cavanaugh attack ads. 

Super PACs can accept unlimited amounts of cash, often labeled dark money because the PACs rarely disclose their donors. 

Cavanaugh’s campaign has blasted the spending in support of “Dark Money Denise.” In an interview, Cavanaugh said the funders behind the ads are trying to scare voters and hide their true objectives. 

“All we do know is that if it was funded by people who actually cared about legislative seats, they'd be spending money on winning legislative seats,” he said. 

Cavanaugh has responded with his own ad that suggests the Blue Dot ads are coming from MAGA Republicans. His ad also suggests Democrats are a lock to gain seats, with Lincoln Sen. George Dungan, who backs Cavanaugh, stating, “We know Nebraska Democrats will pick up additional seats this election, securing the Blue Dot.” 

Cavanaugh acknowledged there are no guarantees in elections, but said he is “convinced” there will be Democratic gains, mostly because Democrats have good candidates who fit their district. 

Cavanaugh also downplayed the threats posed to the Blue Dot and abortion rights. 

Republicans clearly don’t have the votes for the electoral vote change, he said. And he said he thinks Nebraska voters largely settled the abortion issue with their 2024 adoption of a constitutional amendment barring abortions after the first trimester. 

However, abortion rights advocates have pointed out that the Legislature is still free to restrict abortion access further. 

Powell said there no doubt would be risk on those issues if Cavanaugh wins and gives up his legislative seat. She said the margins for progressives in the statehouse have always proven thin. 

Four years ago, Powell and the Women Who Run Nebraska PAC she founded worked to elect lawmakers who would protect abortion rights. There were some big wins, she said, but several other key races narrowly went the other way, ultimately allowing the abortion ban to pass.

“We’ve seen legislation pass and fail by a single vote,” Powell said. “And I just don’t know that you can take anything for granted.”

She said voters don’t have to decide between winning the congressional seat and maximizing seats in Lincoln. They can do both. 

The big dollars spent on the Blue Dot ads have clearly reshaped the race — the reason the Cavanaugh campaign felt the need to respond with ads of its own and the recent shredding party. Whether the issue proves decisive remains to be seen. 

But one operative said it definitely has grabbed voters’ attention. 

“For Democratic primary voters, this is a gut issue,” one said. “They know it. They understand it. They get it.” 

The Flatwater Free Press is Nebraska’s first independent, nonprofit newsroom focused on investigations and feature stories that matter. Read the article here: https://flatwaterfreepress.org/blue-dot-gamble-dem-insiders-weigh-chance-that-winning-congress-could-lose-legislature/