Business Leaders Survey Hits Highest Level in 16 Years

The overall economic measure of a monthly survey of Midwest business leaders hit a 16-year high for October, but the manufacturing sector of the economy remains stunted from the coronavirus outbreak, according to the Creighton University Mid-America Business Conditions Index released Monday.

The overall index improved to 70.2 in October from September’s already strong 65.1. Any score above 50 on the survey’s indexes suggests growth, while a figure below 50 indicates decline.

Creighton University economist Ernie Goss, who oversees the survey, said that the index mirrored national survey results showing that the manufacturing sector has been expanding.

“Even so, current output in the regional and U.S. manufacturing sectors remains below pre-COVID-19 levels,” Goss said. “More than three of four supply managers reported negative COVID-19 impacts.”

Job growth remains strong in the region, with the employment index growing to 66.7 from 61.8 in September. Goss said the region’s unemployment rate fell to 2.9% in October after hitting a high of 11% in May.

Before the coronavirus outbreak began, unemployment in the region was at 1.3%. About 8 of 10 supply managers reported shortages of qualified workers to fill open positions at their firms in October, Goss said.

Business leaders remained optimistic about the next six months, with the confidence index growing to 70.4 from 69.4 in September.

Nebraska’s overall index for September jumped to 71.4 from 62.9 in September. Components of the index were: new orders at 77.8, production or sales at 75.1, delivery lead time at 71.7, inventories at 63.9, and employment at 68.6.

“Validating a rapidly improving state economy, U.S. Department of Labor data indicate that the state’s insured unemployment rate stood at 0.5% in the second week of March, peaked at 11% in the fourth week of May, and fell to 3.2% in the third week of October,” Goss said.

The monthly survey covers Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma and South Dakota.