CRE Summit Webinars Help Connect Real Estate Pros
The coronavirus pandemic has left commercial real estate professionals scrambling for insight into a world without reliable comparables.
To help share information, and to give perspective into what’s happening in other parts of the commercial real estate industry, the CRE Summit is hosting a series of webinars giving updates on topics related to the pandemic.
So far, the summit has hosted two events – one April 8 featuring an examination of how COVID-19 was impacting markets and another April 20 on the future of commercial real estate.
Jerry Slusky, partner at Smith Slusky Law and president of SB Communities, and Alex Epstein, executive vice president of OMNE Partners, have hosted the webinars as founder and co-chair respectively of the CRE Summit.
“Everyone here is concerned about their livelihood,” Slusky said at the outset of the webinar.
Jay Olshonsky, president and CEO of NAI Global, said April 8 that the commercial mortgage business froze when the pandemic began. Some business sectors saw work dry up immediately.
“It is hard-hitting, and it’s everywhere,” Olshonsky said. “There will be, unfortunately, causalities in commercial real estate.”
The onset of the coronavirus brought an onslaught of information, said John Lund, founder and CEO of The Lund Company.
However, Lund said he doesn’t expect demand for office space to evaporate. He said that people live, work and play in separate spaces, and that won’t change.
“I’m optimistic that the office world will survive,” Lund said. “People want to go to the office every day. Do you know anyone who is happy that they’re at home all week? I don’t.”
However, demand for temporary workspaces that promote collaboration could take a hit from the pandemic, said Brad Hammitt, head of commercial mortgage and real estate investments at Mutual of Omaha.
Flexible work schedules will be another consequence of the pandemic, Epstein predicted. Workers will be more likely to split time at home and at the office.
Retail spaces are another matter. The pandemic is unlike other disruptions for retailers, which tends to be geographically limited in cases like hurricanes, wildfires and flooding.
Jay R. Lerner, president of The Lerner Company, said requests for rent deferrals and abatement were more likely to be needed by local tenants but more likely to be made by national tenants.
“Our position has been is that we are basically looking at each one on a case by case level,” Lerner said. “The local tenants and the moms-and-pops really need the help a lot more than I believe the nationals do.”
Lerner said it was a “nonstarter” to ask to shift rent payments at the end of long-term leases. He said he wants to see repayments in the next six months to a year.
Slusky said that landlords in the multifamily residential sector are willing to defer payments for a month or two, as tenants receive their stimulus checks, but don’t want to allow months’ worth of unpaid rent accumulate.
Sean Miglini, senior commercial lender for Veridian Credit Union, said some deferments for businesses forced to close at the onset were a “no-brainer”
“We’re here to help as much as possible,” Miglini said.
Spencer Levy, chair of Americas research and senior economic adviser at CBRE, the world’ discussed the future at the April 20 webinar from the perspective of the world’s largest real estate firm. He said we already know the bad news, but it’s time to look forward to what comes next.
The United States saw economic drops after 9/11 and during the 2008 financial crisis, and the 2003 outbreak of SARS also provides some insights, as does China’s current recovery from COVID-19.
“I think you have to look far and wide for these comps,” Levy said. “There is no such thing as a perfect comp.”
The pandemic is likely to result in “revenge retail” from pent-up demand, especially as the hardest-hit areas loosen restrictions.
Levy said he expects government support to continue, because there’s no “villain” to blame like there was in the financial crisis or the dot-com bubble in 2000.
“Because there is no villain here, you have the federal agencies and the Fed pouring as much money as possible into this to protect people who did no wrong,” Levy said.
The pandemic will continue to have ripple effects in commercial real estate, and the CRE Summit is planning to focus on those at its next traditional summit, which is scheduled for Aug. 14 at the CHI Health Center Omaha. Find more at attendcresummit.com.
Find videos of the two virtual discussions at attendcresummit.com/virtual-discussions.
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